Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-05-11 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

FLA: 64.8%

TOR: 35.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.29

TOR: 2.23

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 42%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	23	0	100.0%	2.51	1	2.51
TOR	Joseph Woll	37	35	2	94.6%	3.23	2	1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	23	1	1.18
1	TOR	7	0	0.26
2	FLA	23	1	1.51
2	TOR	17	0	1.07
3	FLA	12	0	0.53
3	TOR	19	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.2