Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-05-06 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

WSH: 29.8%

CAR: 70.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.26

CAR: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	33	31	2	93.9%	3.31	1	1.31
CAR	Frederik Andersen	14	13	1	92.9%	1.60	1	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.59
1	CAR	22	0	0.93
2	WSH	10	1	0.74
2	CAR	20	1	1.53
3	WSH	4	0	0.15
3	CAR	13	0	0.77
4	WSH	1	0	0.12
4	CAR	3	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.3 - 3.2