Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-05-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (66% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 33.9%

CAR: 66.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.65

CAR: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	28	27	1	96.4%	3.02	1	2.02
CAR	Frederik Andersen	21	18	3	85.7%	2.85	3	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.30
1	CAR	13	0	0.61
2	WSH	19	2	1.50
2	CAR	13	1	1.04
3	WSH	11	1	1.05
3	CAR	26	0	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.6 - 3.2