Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-05-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

WSH: 36.8%

CAR: 63.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.60

CAR: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	22	19	3	86.4%	3.87	4	0.87
CAR	Frederik Andersen	19	18	1	94.7%	2.43	3	1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	1	0.92
1	CAR	13	0	0.70
2	WSH	8	0	0.43
2	CAR	14	1	1.05
3	WSH	15	2	1.08
3	CAR	14	3	2.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3