Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2025-05-07 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 55.1%
DAL: 44.9%
Expected Goals
WPG: 2.64
DAL: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | WPG | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.862 | 0.865 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • WPG at home vs DAL: 4-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | DAL 4 - 3 WPG | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-12-09 | WPG 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | WPG |
| 2025-10-09 | WPG 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | WPG |
| 2025-05-17 | DAL 2 - 1 WPG | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-15 | WPG 4 - 0 DAL | WPG | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 17:35 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:38 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:21 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:43 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 03:30 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.6 - 3.2