Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-05-11 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 57.9%
WPG: 42.1%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.14
WPG: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | DAL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.865 | 0.862 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • DAL at home vs WPG: 6-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | DAL 4 - 3 WPG | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-12-09 | WPG 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | WPG |
| 2025-10-09 | WPG 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | WPG |
| 2025-05-17 | DAL 2 - 1 WPG | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-15 | WPG 4 - 0 DAL | WPG | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:12 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:53 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 02:27 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:07 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:06 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:40 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:51 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 57.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9