Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 46.8%

WPG: 53.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.80

WPG: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	24	2	92.3%	2.34	1	0.34
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	26	21	5	80.8%	4.82	5	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.23
1	WPG	16	1	0.88
2	DAL	12	1	1.12
2	WPG	13	0	0.73
3	DAL	12	3	2.47
3	WPG	16	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2