Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-13 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 48.1%

WPG: 51.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.08

WPG: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	31	1	96.9%	2.94	2	1.94
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	24	21	3	87.5%	2.31	2	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	0	0.48
1	WPG	14	0	0.83
2	DAL	11	1	0.61
2	WPG	19	0	0.83
3	DAL	16	1	1.22
3	WPG	20	2	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1