Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-05-06 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 57.6%
EDM: 42.4%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.31
EDM: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
| Stat | VGK | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | EDM 1 - 5 VGK | VGK | EDM |
| 2026-03-26 | VGK 3 - 4 EDM | EDM | VGK |
| 2026-03-08 | VGK 2 - 4 EDM | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-12-21 | EDM 4 - 3 VGK | EDM | VGK |
| 2025-05-14 | VGK 0 - 1 EDM | EDM | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:13 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 09:03 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 16:26 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 00:57 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 16:58 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 18:14 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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