Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-05-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 55.5%

EDM: 44.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.42

EDM: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	24	4	85.7%	3.11	3	-0.89
EDM	Calvin Pickard	17	15	2	88.2%	2.49	1	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	EDM
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	0.97
1	EDM	16	1	1.07
2	VGK	9	0	0.34
2	EDM	17	2	1.43
3	VGK	18	0	1.18
3	EDM	13	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0