Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2025-05-10 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 60.0%
VGK: 40.0%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.33
VGK: 3.13
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | EDM | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.841 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | EDM 4 - 3 VGK | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-14 | VGK 0 - 1 EDM | EDM | VGK |
| 2025-05-12 | EDM 3 - 0 VGK | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-10 | EDM 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | EDM |
| 2025-05-08 | VGK 4 - 5 EDM | EDM | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:11 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 15:17 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 11:12 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 07:19 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 17:05 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:59 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 16:58 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.3 - 3.1