Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-05-10 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 54.7%

VGK: 45.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.25

VGK: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	EDM
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	VGK
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	VGK

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	07:19	EDM	Goal
1	11:12	EDM	Goal
1	15:17	EDM	Goal
1	16:11	EDM	Goal
2	17:05	VGK	Goal
3	16:58	EDM	Goal
3	19:59	VGK	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9