Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-05-10 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.4%

VGK: 46.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.40

VGK: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	3	1.60
1	VGK	13	3	1.80
2	EDM	14	0	0.54
2	VGK	10	0	0.64
3	EDM	11	1	0.71
3	VGK	10	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1