Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-05-28 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 65.9%

FLA: 34.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.38

FLA: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	25	20	5	80.0%	3.84	2	-1.16
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	20	3	87.0%	2.63	0	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • CAR at home vs FLA: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	CAR 9 - 1 FLA	CAR	CAR
2025-12-23	CAR 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-12-19	FLA 4 - 3 CAR	FLA	CAR
2025-05-28	CAR 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-05-26	FLA 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	13	0	0.83
1	FLA	12	0	0.74
2	CAR	19	0	0.99
2	FLA	12	0	0.74
3	CAR	13	0	0.82
3	FLA	16	2	2.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7