Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (73% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 26.6%

EDM: 73.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.55

EDM: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 8.7

Over 5.5: 85%

Over 6.5: 74%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	10:19	EDM	Goal
1	15:22	DAL	Goal
2	06:08	EDM	Goal
2	07:48	EDM	Goal
3	00:32	EDM	Goal
3	03:49	DAL	Goal
3	05:58	DAL	Goal
3	16:02	DAL	Goal
3	16:45	DAL	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2