Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-29 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

DAL: 46.3%

EDM: 53.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.93

EDM: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	17	6	73.9%	3.06	4	-2.94
EDM	Stuart Skinner	17	14	3	82.4%	2.30	1	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.50
1	EDM	14	2	1.30
2	DAL	13	1	1.31
2	EDM	14	1	0.97
3	DAL	11	0	0.49
3	EDM	8	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4