Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-06-14 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 56.8%

FLA: 43.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.40

FLA: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	19	14	5	73.7%	2.77	4	-2.23
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	21	19	2	90.5%	1.62	0	-0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • EDM at home vs FLA: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	EDM 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-11-22	FLA 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-06-17	FLA 5 - 1 EDM	FLA	EDM
2025-06-14	EDM 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-06-12	FLA 4 - 5 EDM	EDM	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	6	0	0.45
1	FLA	17	0	1.09
2	EDM	15	0	0.62
2	FLA	10	1	0.49
3	EDM	16	0	0.56
3	FLA	8	3	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0