Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-10-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 0 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 40.8%

PIT: 59.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.12

PIT: 3.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	NYR	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	28	3	90.3%	3.65	2	0.65
PIT	Arturs Silovs	25	25	0	100.0%	1.84	0	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.77
1	PIT	11	0	0.68
2	NYR	17	0	0.67
2	PIT	10	0	0.51
3	NYR	8	0	0.40
3	PIT	20	2	2.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown