Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 41.0%

MTL: 59.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.51

MTL: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	TOR	MTL
Season SV%	0.884	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	31	29	2	93.5%	3.27	1	1.27
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	22	5	81.5%	3.45	2	-1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TOR
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.66
1	MTL	12	1	0.94
2	TOR	16	0	0.69
2	MTL	21	0	1.49
3	TOR	10	2	2.09
3	MTL	14	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown