Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 43.9%

MTL: 56.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.88

MTL: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.66
1	MTL	12	1	0.94
2	TOR	16	0	0.69
2	MTL	21	0	1.49
3	TOR	10	2	2.09
3	MTL	14	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 2.7