Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 51.4%

BOS: 48.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.45

BOS: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs BOS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	1.13
1	BOS	12	0	0.42
2	WSH	27	2	2.06
2	BOS	11	0	0.62
3	WSH	16	1	1.08
3	BOS	20	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6