Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Calgary Flames (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 50.7%

CGY: 49.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.98

CGY: 3.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	EDM	CGY
Season SV%	0.896	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	23	5	82.1%	4.95	3	-0.05
CGY	Dustin Wolf	41	37	4	90.2%	4.91	2	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.70
1	CGY	9	0	0.40
2	EDM	14	1	1.17
2	CGY	13	1	1.36
3	EDM	13	0	0.84
3	CGY	11	0	0.49
4	EDM	7	0	0.78
4	CGY	3	0	0.36
5	EDM	8	1	1.42
5	CGY	8	2	2.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6