Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 63.7%

LAK: 36.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.33

LAK: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	VGK	LAK
Season SV%	0.888	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	21	7	75.0%	3.91	5	-3.09
LAK	Anton Forsberg	38	32	6	84.2%	4.24	1	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs LAK: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	VGK 2 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	0	0.93
1	LAK	10	1	0.62
2	VGK	19	0	1.01
2	LAK	8	0	0.56
3	VGK	12	0	0.85
3	LAK	10	2	0.78
4	VGK	4	0	0.36
4	LAK	3	0	0.24
5	VGK	3	1	1.10
5	LAK	3	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.6