Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 71.8%

CHI: 28.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 4.29

CHI: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	BOS	CHI
Season SV%	0.882	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	24	21	3	87.5%	2.45	0	-0.55
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	33	29	4	87.9%	3.93	3	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BOS at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	CHI 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-10-09	BOS 4 - 3 CHI	BOS	BOS
2025-04-10	BOS 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	BOS
2024-12-04	CHI 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	CHI
2023-10-24	CHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.47
1	CHI	12	0	0.65
2	BOS	11	1	1.03
2	CHI	11	0	0.71
3	BOS	21	2	2.17
3	CHI	9	0	0.70
4	BOS	2	0	0.26
4	CHI	3	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.3 - 3.2