Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 55.3%

MTL: 44.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.92

MTL: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	DET	MTL
Season SV%	0.893	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	17	12	5	70.6%	2.07	1	-2.93
MTL	Jakub Dobes	31	30	1	96.8%	2.87	1	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	DET
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	DET
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	DET
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	1.18
1	MTL	10	0	0.74
2	DET	13	0	0.77
2	MTL	9	1	0.92
3	DET	15	1	0.92
3	MTL	6	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown