Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

DET: 47.7%

MTL: 52.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.61

MTL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	1.18
1	MTL	10	0	0.74
2	DET	13	0	0.77
2	MTL	9	1	0.92
3	DET	15	1	0.92
3	MTL	6	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4