Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-10-09 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 50.6%
MTL: 49.4%
Expected Goals
DET: 2.30
MTL: 2.64
Total Goals
Median: 2.7
Over 5.5: 17%
Over 6.5: 11%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | DET | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.918 | 0.948 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | DET 3 - 1 MTL | DET | DET |
| 2026-01-10 | MTL 0 - 4 DET | DET | MTL |
| 2025-10-09 | DET 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | DET |
| 2025-04-08 | MTL 4 - 1 DET | MTL | DET |
| 2025-01-23 | DET 4 - 2 MTL | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:50 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 10:14 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 12:43 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:53 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:19 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:12 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 4.9
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.3 - 2.6
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