Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 46.1%

OTT: 53.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.34

OTT: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 56%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	20	2	1.41
1	OTT	15	0	1.34
2	TBL	12	0	0.73
2	OTT	20	0	1.13
3	TBL	6	0	0.16
3	OTT	11	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.5