New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

PIT: 65.2%

NYI: 34.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.71

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	2	0.95
1	NYI	16	0	0.90
2	PIT	13	2	0.97
2	NYI	16	1	1.58
3	PIT	13	1	1.18
3	NYI	17	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7