Utah Hockey Club at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 68.5%

UTA: 31.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.42

UTA: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 34%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	COL	UTA
Season SV%	0.919	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	33	32	1	97.0%	2.53	0	1.53
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	27	25	2	92.6%	2.94	2	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • COL at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	UTA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-23	COL 1 - 0 UTA	COL	COL
2025-10-21	UTA 4 - 3 COL	UTA	COL
2025-10-09	COL 2 - 1 UTA	COL	COL
2024-12-27	UTA 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	1	1.20
1	UTA	14	0	0.42
2	COL	10	0	0.44
2	UTA	16	0	0.95
3	COL	14	1	1.30
3	UTA	18	0	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown