Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

BOS: 64.9%

BUF: 35.1%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.14

BUF: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	27	2	1.56
1	BUF	6	0	0.22
2	BOS	10	1	1.05
2	BUF	19	2	1.17
3	BOS	13	2	1.49
3	BUF	14	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 2.3