Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 56.5%

TOR: 43.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.42

TOR: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 46%

Over 6.5: 35%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	DET	TOR
Season SV%	0.888	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	23	20	3	87.0%	2.34	2	-0.66
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	35	29	6	82.9%	4.77	5	-1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	22	2	1.66
1	TOR	9	1	0.62
2	DET	20	1	1.67
2	TOR	12	1	0.72
3	DET	8	2	1.44
3	TOR	13	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown