Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DET: 71.5%

TOR: 28.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 4.19

TOR: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	22	2	1.66
1	TOR	9	1	0.62
2	DET	20	1	1.67
2	TOR	12	1	0.72
3	DET	8	2	1.44
3	TOR	13	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.2 - 3.4