New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 64.7%

NJD: 35.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.07

NJD: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	TBL	NJD
Season SV%	0.913	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	26	5	83.9%	3.44	3	-1.56
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	17	14	3	82.4%	1.78	1	-1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	TBL
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	5	0	0.33
1	NJD	21	0	1.37
2	TBL	10	0	0.47
2	NJD	13	1	0.94
3	TBL	12	1	0.98
3	NJD	11	2	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown