New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-10-11 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 74.1%
NJD: 25.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.53
NJD: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 7.4
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 61%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.873 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.792 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | NJD |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 74.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.5 - 3.0
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