New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

TBL: 45.3%

NJD: 54.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.20

NJD: 3.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	5	0	0.33
1	NJD	21	0	1.37
2	TBL	10	0	0.47
2	NJD	13	1	0.94
3	TBL	12	1	0.98
3	NJD	11	2	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.9