New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-10-11 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 50.9%
NJD: 49.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 4.52
NJD: 2.60
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.899 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.792 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | NJD |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:48 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 10:17 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 08:30 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 17:23 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 07:31 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 16:17 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 06:29 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 04:48 | NJD | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 7.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 4.5 - 2.6