Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 59.2%

WSH: 40.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.50

WSH: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	NYI	WSH
Season SV%	0.910	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	25	4	86.2%	5.18	8	1.18
WSH	Logan Thompson	36	34	2	94.4%	2.52	1	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	NYI
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	8	0	0.29
1	WSH	13	3	1.31
2	NYI	18	0	0.82
2	WSH	18	3	1.94
3	NYI	24	1	1.41
3	WSH	13	2	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown