New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New York Rangers

Win Probability

PIT: 43.8%

NYR: 56.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.51

NYR: 5.61

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	1.02
1	NYR	5	0	0.42
2	PIT	7	0	0.58
2	NYR	19	2	1.42
3	PIT	10	2	0.80
3	NYR	14	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 8.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.5 - 5.6