Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 4 - 7 Columbus Blue Jackets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 41.2%

CBJ: 58.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.62

CBJ: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	MIN	CBJ
Season SV%	0.912	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	25	7	78.1%	3.64	2	-3.36
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	52	48	4	92.3%	5.21	5	1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs CBJ: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	CBJ 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-10-11	MIN 4 - 7 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2024-10-19	CBJ 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-10-10	MIN 3 - 2 CBJ	MIN	CBJ
2024-01-06	CBJ 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	21	2	1.32
1	CBJ	12	0	0.61
2	MIN	27	3	2.41
2	CBJ	13	1	1.01
3	MIN	21	0	1.49
3	CBJ	19	1	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown