Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Dallas Stars (SO)

Win Probability

COL: 36.6%

DAL: 63.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.76

DAL: 4.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	19	0	1.21
1	DAL	10	0	0.65
2	COL	15	1	0.73
2	DAL	9	1	1.40
3	COL	22	0	1.48
3	DAL	13	2	1.13
4	COL	2	0	0.13
4	DAL	1	0	0.05
5	COL	3	1	0.88
5	DAL	3	2	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 4.1