Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 41.0%

VGK: 59.0%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.67

VGK: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	SEA	VGK
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	27	26	1	96.3%	2.67	0	1.67
VGK	Adin Hill	22	20	2	90.9%	3.31	3	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • SEA at home vs VGK: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	SEA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	19	1	0.91
1	VGK	10	0	0.64
2	SEA	10	0	0.84
2	VGK	21	0	1.24
3	SEA	6	1	0.62
3	VGK	12	0	0.58
4	SEA	9	1	0.94
4	VGK	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 2.6