Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 52.6%

COL: 47.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.47

COL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.1

Over 5.5: 47%

Over 6.5: 34%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	BUF	COL
Season SV%	0.906	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	37	34	3	91.9%	3.48	3	0.48
COL	Scott Wedgewood	28	27	1	96.4%	2.13	0	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	0.78
1	COL	12	0	0.82
2	BUF	18	0	0.88
2	COL	16	2	1.17
3	BUF	7	0	0.47
3	COL	23	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown