Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 55.0%

COL: 45.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 1.95

COL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 36%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	BUF
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	0.78
1	COL	12	0	0.82
2	BUF	18	0	0.88
2	COL	16	2	1.17
3	BUF	7	0	0.47
3	COL	23	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 4.8

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.0 - 2.9