Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 60.6%

TBL: 39.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 4.37

TBL: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	BOS	TBL
Season SV%	0.882	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	23	19	4	82.6%	4.06	5	0.06
TBL	Jonas Johansson	33	30	3	90.9%	2.35	1	-0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	0	0.44
1	TBL	16	3	1.91
2	BOS	20	0	1.01
2	TBL	15	1	0.86
3	BOS	18	1	0.90
3	TBL	11	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown