Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 65.1%

WPG: 34.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.50

WPG: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	NYI	WPG
Season SV%	0.910	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	21	5	80.8%	3.23	3	-1.77
WPG	Eric Comrie	35	33	2	94.3%	3.33	1	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	NYI
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	1	1.35
1	WPG	15	1	1.13
2	NYI	20	0	1.19
2	WPG	13	1	0.98
3	NYI	19	0	0.79
3	WPG	5	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown