Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TOR: 26.7%

DET: 73.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.35

DET: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.93
1	DET	15	0	0.90
2	TOR	15	0	0.95
2	DET	6	0	0.44
3	TOR	24	0	1.67
3	DET	8	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 2.3 - 3.4