Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 50.4%

DET: 49.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.06

DET: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	TOR	DET
Season SV%	0.884	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	15	12	3	80.0%	1.73	0	-1.27
DET	Cam Talbot	40	38	2	95.0%	3.54	1	1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.93
1	DET	15	0	0.90
2	TOR	15	0	0.95
2	DET	6	0	0.44
3	TOR	24	0	1.67
3	DET	8	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown