Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 47.6%

FLA: 52.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.37

FLA: 4.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	PHI	FLA
Season SV%	0.910	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	26	24	2	92.3%	2.97	3	0.97
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	22	17	5	77.3%	5.07	3	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs FLA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	FLA
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	1.26
1	FLA	7	0	0.30
2	PHI	18	0	1.59
2	FLA	17	2	1.96
3	PHI	8	3	2.22
3	FLA	9	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown