St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 64.3%

STL: 35.7%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.44

STL: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	VAN	STL
Season SV%	0.885	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	36	31	5	86.1%	3.84	4	-1.16
STL	Jordan Binnington	29	27	2	93.1%	3.17	4	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs STL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	VAN 1 - 3 STL	STL	STL
2025-10-30	STL 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	STL
2025-10-13	VAN 2 - 5 STL	STL	VAN
2025-03-20	STL 4 - 3 VAN	STL	STL
2025-01-27	STL 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	16	0	0.33
1	STL	18	1	1.01
2	VAN	15	2	1.24
2	STL	24	2	1.79
3	VAN	16	2	1.60
3	STL	7	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown