Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 4 Nashville Predators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 60.9%

NSH: 39.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.25

NSH: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

C. Primeau

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Stat	TOR	NSH
Season SV%	—	0.875
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.29

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	C. Primeau	30	26	4	86.7%	2.49	1	-1.51
NSH	Justus Annunen	28	21	7	75.0%	4.81	3	-2.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TOR at home vs NSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	NSH 5 - 3 TOR	NSH	NSH
2025-10-14	TOR 7 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-03-22	NSH 5 - 2 TOR	NSH	NSH
2024-12-04	TOR 3 - 2 NSH	TOR	TOR
2023-12-09	TOR 4 - 0 NSH	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	1.02
1	NSH	10	1	0.72
2	TOR	10	0	0.70
2	NSH	20	0	1.24
3	TOR	19	3	3.08
3	NSH	14	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown