Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Seattle Kraken (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 71.9%

SEA: 28.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 4.03

SEA: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	MTL	SEA
Season SV%	0.863	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	22	18	4	81.8%	1.99	2	-2.01
SEA	Joey Daccord	22	17	5	77.3%	2.25	1	-2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs SEA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	SEA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-10-14	MTL 5 - 4 SEA	MTL	MTL
2025-03-12	SEA 5 - 4 MTL	SEA	SEA
2024-10-29	MTL 2 - 8 SEA	SEA	SEA
2024-03-24	SEA 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.64
1	SEA	4	0	0.23
2	MTL	13	1	0.97
2	SEA	19	2	1.28
3	MTL	8	0	0.46
3	SEA	10	0	0.49
4	MTL	2	0	0.18
4	SEA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 4.0 - 2.6