Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 56.0%

TBL: 44.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.81

TBL: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	WSH	TBL
Season SV%	0.913	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	17	2	89.5%	2.19	3	0.19
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	25	3	89.3%	2.99	1	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.31
1	TBL	11	2	1.00
2	WSH	19	0	0.93
2	TBL	10	0	0.66
3	WSH	14	0	1.02
3	TBL	8	1	0.54
4	WSH	5	1	0.73
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.8 - 3.6