Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-10-14 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 81.7%
TBL: 18.3%
Expected Goals
WSH: 4.19
TBL: 2.31
Total Goals
Median: 7.1
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 61%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | WSH | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.800 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 81.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 4.2 - 2.3
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.