Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 34.8%

VGK: 65.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.49

VGK: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	CGY	VGK
Season SV%	0.901	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	30	26	4	86.7%	3.98	5	-0.02
VGK	Adin Hill	29	27	2	93.1%	2.26	0	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.70
1	VGK	14	0	0.46
2	CGY	17	0	1.05
2	VGK	21	0	0.98
3	CGY	13	0	0.52
3	VGK	14	5	2.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown