Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CGY: 39.0%

VGK: 61.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.14

VGK: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 92% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.70
1	VGK	14	0	0.46
2	CGY	17	0	1.05
2	VGK	21	0	0.98
3	CGY	13	0	0.52
3	VGK	14	5	2.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5