Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-10-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 51.5%
VGK: 48.5%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.26
VGK: 3.62
Total Goals
Median: 8.3
Over 5.5: 86%
Over 6.5: 76%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | CGY | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.829 | 0.886 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | VGK 6 - 3 CGY | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-12-20 | CGY 6 - 3 VGK | CGY | VGK |
| 2025-10-18 | VGK 6 - 1 CGY | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-10-14 | CGY 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | CGY |
| 2025-04-15 | CGY 5 - 4 VGK | CGY | VGK |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.3 - 3.6
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