Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 56.9%

MIN: 43.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.85

MIN: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	DAL	MIN
Season SV%	0.907	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	41	39	2	95.1%	3.04	2	1.04
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	25	20	5	80.0%	4.38	4	-0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • DAL at home vs MIN: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	1.10
1	MIN	16	1	0.93
2	DAL	13	0	0.94
2	MIN	14	1	0.95
3	DAL	7	3	2.34
3	MIN	21	0	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown