Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 73.0%

PIT: 27.0%

Expected Goals

ANA: 4.05

PIT: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	ANA	PIT
Season SV%	0.888	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	25	22	3	88.0%	2.48	0	-0.52
PIT	Tristan Jarry	22	18	4	81.8%	2.73	0	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • ANA at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	PIT 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	PIT
2025-10-14	ANA 4 - 3 PIT	ANA	ANA
2025-01-23	ANA 5 - 1 PIT	ANA	PIT
2024-10-31	PIT 2 - 1 ANA	PIT	PIT
2023-11-07	ANA 0 - 2 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	ANA	14	0.78
1	PIT	18	1.20
2	ANA	19	1.45
2	PIT	13	1.01
3	ANA	10	0.51
3	PIT	5	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown