Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-10-15 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 8 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 73.2%

CHI: 26.8%

Expected Goals

STL: 4.43

CHI: 2.37

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	STL	CHI
Season SV%	0.901	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	29	21	8	72.4%	3.84	3	-4.16
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	26	23	3	88.5%	3.09	2	0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • STL at home vs CHI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	CHI 3 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2026-01-07	CHI 7 - 3 STL	CHI	STL
2025-12-12	STL 3 - 2 CHI	STL	STL
2025-10-15	STL 3 - 8 CHI	CHI	STL
2025-03-22	STL 4 - 1 CHI	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	1	1.29
1	CHI	15	0	0.67
2	STL	11	0	0.47
2	CHI	16	2	1.75
3	STL	21	1	1.33
3	CHI	12	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown