Calgary Flames at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-10-15 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 74.8%

CGY: 25.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.90

CGY: 2.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	UTA	CGY
Season SV%	0.895	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	20	19	1	95.0%	3.41	3	2.41
CGY	Devin Cooley	32	29	3	90.6%	4.82	5	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • UTA at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	CGY 4 - 1 UTA	CGY	UTA
2025-12-06	CGY 2 - 0 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-10-15	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-04-01	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-01-02	CGY 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	12	2	1.07
1	CGY	12	1	1.16
2	UTA	29	2	2.71
2	CGY	5	0	0.36
3	UTA	7	1	1.03
3	CGY	22	2	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown