New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Rangers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 44.8%

NYR: 55.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.79

NYR: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	1	1.04
1	NYR	13	0	1.05
2	TOR	18	0	0.76
2	NYR	13	0	0.84
3	TOR	7	0	0.33
3	NYR	19	1	1.04
4	TOR	1	0	0.09
4	NYR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2