Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Nashville Predators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 57.3%

NSH: 42.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.74

NSH: 2.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	MTL	NSH
Season SV%	0.889	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	19	17	2	89.5%	2.50	1	0.50
NSH	Juuse Saros	30	27	3	90.0%	3.96	3	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs NSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NSH 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NSH
2025-10-16	MTL 3 - 2 NSH	MTL	MTL
2025-04-06	NSH 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	NSH
2024-12-05	MTL 3 - 0 NSH	MTL	MTL
2024-03-05	NSH 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.58
1	NSH	11	0	0.38
2	MTL	14	1	0.80
2	NSH	12	0	0.97
3	MTL	15	2	1.84
3	NSH	8	1	0.80
4	MTL	6	0	0.74
4	NSH	3	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.7 - 2.2