Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 48.6%

EDM: 51.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.24

EDM: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	NYI	EDM
Season SV%	0.909	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	33	31	2	93.9%	3.67	3	1.67
EDM	Stuart Skinner	25	21	4	84.0%	4.08	4	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	EDM
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	19	1	1.32
1	EDM	13	2	1.16
2	NYI	13	1	0.92
2	EDM	22	1	1.56
3	NYI	11	2	1.84
3	EDM	13	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown