Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 60.1%

WPG: 39.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.39

WPG: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	PHI	WPG
Season SV%	0.868	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	15	10	5	66.7%	1.81	1	-3.19
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	17	15	2	88.2%	2.07	1	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	6	0	0.52
1	WPG	9	0	0.42
2	PHI	17	1	1.38
2	WPG	6	0	0.48
3	PHI	4	0	0.18
3	WPG	7	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown