Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 54.8%

WPG: 45.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.09

WPG: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	WPG
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	6	0	0.52
1	WPG	9	0	0.42
2	PHI	17	1	1.38
2	WPG	6	0	0.48
3	PHI	4	0	0.18
3	WPG	7	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0