Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 63.0%

VAN: 37.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.75

VAN: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	DAL	VAN
Season SV%	0.912	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	26	21	5	80.8%	2.73	3	-2.27
VAN	Thatcher Demko	31	28	3	90.3%	4.29	6	1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	4	2.19
1	VAN	10	1	0.82
2	DAL	13	0	1.00
2	VAN	16	2	1.50
3	DAL	16	2	1.09
3	VAN	14	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown