Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 50.1%

VAN: 49.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.77

VAN: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	4	2.19
1	VAN	10	1	0.82
2	DAL	13	0	1.00
2	VAN	16	2	1.50
3	DAL	16	2	1.09
3	VAN	14	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.8 - 3.6